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fx:macro Summary Changes

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"19.11.22

"10.12.22

***** MACRO *****

>>BULL<<

▶︎ GDP growth is picking up, inflation is coming down: goldilocks again

▶︎ Asian stock markets holding on to their gains for now

▶︎ Asian markets performing on China reopening

▶︎ Volatility metrics are bullish, no indication of stress whatsoever

▶︎ FX volatility is declining, equity volatility is low and various volatility indexes aren't showing any stress

▶︎ ETF flows are bullish

▶︎ Breadth is still bullish

▶︎ Breadth is bullish

▶︎ TD Ameritrade IMX is near lows

▶︎ Seasonality is very bullish for equities

▶︎ Seasonality is bullish for equities

▶︎ Stocks are up despite the meltdowns in crypto

▶︎ Metals have been performing

>>BEAR<<

▶︎ Correlation between ES and VVIX has hit a critical level

▶︎ Longer-term treasuries have started to perform: bad news for risk assets if this goes on

▶︎ CNN Fear & Greed already at ""Greed""

▶︎ Credit spreads are still at/near/above recent highs

▶︎ Six out of eight G8 2s10s yield curves have inverted so far

▶︎ The global economy continues to weaken (e.g. PMIs)

▶︎ The global economy continues to weaken but some Asian PMIs have started to improve

▶︎ Equities (still) seeing outflows globally

▶︎ CL isn't buying the China reopening story

▶︎ Sector performance bearish once again despite stocks going nowhere, though this seems to change week-by-week now... not good either way

▶︎ Key commodities (CL, HG) lower despite the pausing dollar and glimmers of hope out of China is a very bad sign for the global economy

▶︎ The stocks that are rallying are the most beaten-down names, so there's probably a lot of short-squeezing and dead-cat-bouncing going on

>>SUMMARY<<

I'm still seeing short-term upside in risk assets because of the post-CPI sentiment shift and how stocks have traded since then, and because I believe it needs a hard catalyst like a hot CPI or a box on the ears by Powell to change that. What's worrying is the ES/VVIX correlation signal, so I'm definitely going to be careful. And using the upside to build downside convexity.

It's been three weeks since I published my last macro assessment, and if I go through it all, things have either remained stable or they have improved: the China reopening does have some meat on the bones, markets reflect that (copper, Asian stock indexes) but euphoria is pretty much contained (crude oil, US equities). So, I'll keep a short-term bullish bias into year-end while the overall bearish macro conditions remain in place.

***** USD *****

>>BULL<<

▶︎ Fedspeak has felt a touch more hawkish with Bullard and Waller but they're the outliers for now

▶︎ GDP growth in Q4 picking up and so far shows no sign of coming down (GDPNow)

▶︎ Flows into USD continue

▶︎ The labour market remains strong... for now it's a soft landing

▶︎ Slowing global growth (PMIs getting worse globally, Fidelity Business Cycles)

>>BEAR<<

▶︎ Inflation breakevens coming down

▶︎ Messaging from the Fed has been dovish in relation to the easing financial conditions

▶︎ The cooler-than-expected CPI print has cemented the market's expectation of a Fed pivot

▶︎ Inflation breakevens coming down, CSII is heading lower

▶︎ Three CBs intervening (or rumoured to intervene) on behalf of their currencies: Japan, China, India

▶︎ The China reopening is happening

▶︎ Housing is seeing one bad print after the other

▶︎ Real yields haven't moved higher for a while

▶︎ COT positioning in treasuries is bullish

▶︎ Bearish seasonality

>>SUMMARY<<

As last week it all hangs on the Macro view above. The market has been trading a Fed pivot, the Fed's reaction to that has been far less hawkish than I would have expected, breakevens coming down and no hard data points on the calendar next week, so a lower dollar is the reasonable thing to expect although my conviction isn't high.

I don't have a firm view on the dollar going into this week with FOMC on Wednesday, but: everyone seems to expect a lot of hawkishness and Powell didn't deliver that last week when he clearly could have. Once again: we've entered the Fed blackout on dovish footing and it feels like Wednesday will see more dollar weakness. Short-term, the China reopening story will also weigh on the dollar, and depending on how that goes, I'll have to reassess my medium-term view.

***** EUR *****

>>BULL<<

▶︎ The ECB is starting to look relatively hawkish compared to the Fed, BoE, BOC, RBA, BOJ

▶︎ Hawkish comments from policymakers continue (on rates and QT)

▶︎ Yields are performing, especially the short end (central bank)

▶︎ European stock markets are outperforming

▶︎ Significant flows into EUR

▶︎ CESI still going higher, PMIs have gone from very bad to bad

▶︎ CESI still going higher

▶︎ No reaction from EUR to energy, weather or Russia in a while

▶︎ There hasn't been any nuclear rhetoric from Russia for a while, and it feels as if a positive catalyst from the conflict is a bit more possible than it was in the past

>>BEAR<<

▶︎ European PMIs have weakened further

▶︎ Bloomberg sources saying 50 bps is the likely step in December

▶︎ COT positioning is bearish

>>SUMMARY<<

Similar to last week: the EUR has several points going for it besides a weaker USD (and its strength even during the dollar bull run has been noteworthy): the ECB looks credibly hawkish, the energy situation has calmed for now, the Russia/Ukraine war isn't delivering any fresh catalysts to the downside, stock markets are up, yields are performing.

The tailwinds clearly outweigh the headwinds especially if dollar weakness goes on.

***** GBP *****

>>BULL<<

▶︎ Drop in Inflation Surprise Index (CSII) but inflation surprised to the upside again this week... the market liked it

▶︎ Inherent strength

▶︎ Flows into sterling

▶︎ CESI remains fairly resilient

▶︎ CESI picking up, data surprising to the upside

▶︎ Gilt sales have started without much fanfare

>>BEAR<<

▶︎ Very dovish central bank despite a few hawkish comments this week and last

▶︎ Depressing economic outlook

▶︎ Worst OECD CLI among G8

▶︎ PMIs have weakened

▶︎ Bearish seasonality

▶︎ Flows out of GBP

>>SUMMARY<<

I see the upside surprises in econ data, I see the positive reaction on the government's budget, I see that it's stronger than I anticipated... but with the outlook being as bad as it is, I can't bring myself to put in anything else but bias to the short side.

It's tough to reconcile my macro assessment (which is clearly bearish) with the reality of GBP trading well. I'm changing my bias to neutral but that's just an acknowledgement of it being stronger than expected and me not understanding it well enough.

***** AUD *****

>>BULL<<

▶︎ The RBA wasn't hawkish, but at least it wasn't outright dovish this week

▶︎ One of the few PMI outperformers

▶︎ Relative outperformer in the OECD CLI

▶︎ CSII is up

>>BEAR<<

▶︎ Regardless whether the Chinese re-opening comes true or not: AUD performance has been disappointing on these news

▶︎ AUD performance has been horrible in light of the Chinese reopening news

▶︎ Probably the most dovish central bank beside the BOJ now

▶︎ PMIs in Asia deteriorating further, China is a drag on AUD

▶︎ Seasonality is bearish

▶︎ Has seen outflows over the last weeks

>>SUMMARY<<

It hasn't reacted to the Chinese reopening news much, commodities aren't performing, the RBA is dovish... switching back to neutral, trading it from the long and short side depending on risk on/risk off.

AUD has performed badly on the China pivot (as has crude oil) and the RBA isn't helping, so it's tough to imagine it much higher. Will leave it at neutral.

***** NZD *****

>>BULL<<

▶︎ Inherent strength

▶︎ Inherent strength on all timeframes

▶︎ Incoming data has improved

▶︎ The highest Services PMI among the G8

▶︎ PMI outperformer

▶︎ Inflation surprising to the upside again (CSII... but PPI disappointed this week)

▶︎ Yield curve bear flattener

▶︎ Bearish sentiment

>>BEAR<<

▶︎ Bullish sentiment

▶︎ Divergence between increasing Aussie trade balance and stagnant/falling Kiwi trade balance

>>SUMMARY<<

The outperformance vs. AUD continues, it seems to benefit from the Chinese headlines way more than AUD. Add the comparatively hawkish RBNZ and it's a long bias.

Unchanged from three weeks ago: The outperformance vs. AUD continues, it seems to benefit from the Chinese headlines way more than AUD. Add the comparatively hawkish RBNZ and it's a long bias.

***** CAD *****

>>BULL<<

▶︎ CESI has picked up from lows

▶︎ Small improvement in PMIs

▶︎ COT positioning is near a bullish extreme

▶︎ COT positioning is at a bullish extreme

▶︎ Housing market remains strong

▶︎ Bearish sentiment

▶︎ 25-delta risk reversal is seeing it higher

>>BEAR<<

▶︎ Flows out of CAD

▶︎ The BOC have effectively ended the hiking cycle

▶︎ CSII lower

▶︎ It's been underperforming massively

▶︎ Yields have softened, inverted 2s10s

>>SUMMARY<<

It continues to underperform despite more-hawkish-than-dovish rhetoric from the BOC, and with crude selling off I don't see a lot of upside. But again: I feel that I don't understand it very well at the moment.

Still no good arguments to change the outlook from bearish to neutral: the BOC are now the most dovish central bank next to the BOJ, and crude oil is the laggard in the China story (together with AUD). Positioning in CAD being bullish, and short CAD being the trade for next year somewhere every other day are the only two things going for it.

***** CHF *****

>>BULL<<

▶︎ 2s are up while they are down for everyone else

▶︎ PMI still holding up (one of the few that's still green on the map)

▶︎ PAIN shows shorts haven't been covered yet

▶︎ Extremely bearish sentiment, especially USDCHF and EURCHF

▶︎ Hawkish comments again this week

>>BEAR<<

▶︎ CSII has tanked

▶︎ CSII ticking lower

▶︎ CESI has taken quite a nosedive and no sign of picking up

▶︎ CESI isn't picking up

▶︎ Inflation not surprising to the upside anymore

▶︎ Yields are underperforming

>>SUMMARY<<

Two weeks ago: I'm still a bit surprised by how weak it is. One week ago: hawkish commentary and a short-squeeze. This week: downside despite hawkish SNB commentary. Looking at it honestly, I have to admit I don't understand it from a fundamental side at the moment, so I can only trade it on higher timeframes and as a risk-on/risk-off proxy on short timeframes.

CAD hasn't worked for me in a while, maybe it's the new funding currency of choice with the second-lowest interest rates next to JPY, but I don't know. As previously, I'll only trade it as a risk-on/risk-off proxy.

***** JPY *****

>>BULL<<

▶︎ Inflation surprises have picked up, the tone of the talk from policymakers has also shifted subtly (see the Summary of Opinions last week, Kuroda this week)

▶︎ Inflation surprises have picked up, the tone of the talk from policymakers has also shifted subtly

▶︎ Treasury yields have tanked

▶︎ Relative outperformer in the OECD CLI

▶︎ Positioning is still very bullish (I don't really know why I hadn't included that over the last weeks, just look at COT)

▶︎ One possible contender for the Kuroda succession (Nakaso) is at least a bit hawkish... nothing relevant for now but keeping it in mind

>>BEAR<<

▶︎ The divergence between the BOJ and every other central bank isn't getting any smaller

>>SUMMARY<<

While the perceived Fed pivot will still lead to widening yield differentials, the rate of change will slow down, and apparently this (paired with lower treasury yields) was enough to trigger a short-squeeze in the USDJPY. Add the interventions and the (subtle) shift in BOJ comments and their Summary of Opinions, and it's not a short anymore."

With the JPY being driven by US yields, I don't have a firm view on it either going into this week. Overall, my bias is slightly long with treasuries trading the way they are but my conviction is too low to change it in the sidebar."

已保存差异

原始文本

Open file

"19.11.22
***** MACRO *****
     >>BULL<<
▶︎ GDP growth is picking up, inflation is coming down: goldilocks again
▶︎ Asian stock markets holding on to their gains for now
▶︎ Volatility metrics are bullish, no indication of stress whatsoever
▶︎ ETF flows are bullish
▶︎ Breadth is bullish
▶︎ TD Ameritrade IMX is near lows
▶︎ Seasonality is very bullish for equities
▶︎ Stocks are up despite the meltdowns in crypto
     >>BEAR<<
▶︎ Correlation between ES and VVIX has hit a critical level
▶︎ Longer-term treasuries have started to perform: bad news for risk assets if this goes on
▶︎ CNN Fear & Greed already at ""Greed""
▶︎ Credit spreads are still at/near/above recent highs
▶︎ Six out of eight G8 2s10s yield curves have inverted so far
▶︎ The global economy continues to weaken (e.g. PMIs)
▶︎ Equities (still) seeing outflows globally
▶︎ Sector performance bearish once again despite stocks going nowhere, though this seems to change week-by-week now... not good either way
▶︎ Key commodities (CL, HG) lower despite the pausing dollar and glimmers of hope out of China is a very bad sign for the global economy
▶︎ The stocks that are rallying are the most beaten-down names, so there's probably a lot of short-squeezing and dead-cat-bouncing going on
     >>SUMMARY<<
I'm still seeing short-term upside in risk assets because of the post-CPI sentiment shift and how stocks have traded since then, and because I believe it needs a hard catalyst like a hot CPI or a box on the ears by Powell to change that. What's worrying is the ES/VVIX correlation signal, so I'm definitely going to be careful. And using the upside to build downside convexity.

***** USD *****
     >>BULL<<
▶︎ Fedspeak has felt a touch more hawkish with Bullard and Waller but they're the outliers for now
▶︎ GDP growth in Q4 picking up and so far shows no sign of coming down (GDPNow)
▶︎ Flows into USD continue
▶︎ The labour market remains strong... for now it's a soft landing
▶︎ Slowing global growth (PMIs getting worse globally, Fidelity Business Cycles)
     >>BEAR<<
▶︎ Inflation breakevens coming down
▶︎ The cooler-than-expected CPI print has cemented the market's expectation of a Fed pivot
▶︎ Three CBs intervening (or rumoured to intervene) on behalf of their currencies: Japan, China, India
▶︎ Housing is seeing one bad print after the other
▶︎ Real yields haven't moved higher for a while
     >>SUMMARY<<
As last week it all hangs on the Macro view above. The market has been trading a Fed pivot, the Fed's reaction to that has been far less hawkish than I would have expected, breakevens coming down and no hard data points on the calendar next week, so a lower dollar is the reasonable thing to expect although my conviction isn't high.

***** EUR *****
     >>BULL<<
▶︎ The ECB is starting to look relatively hawkish compared to the Fed, BoE, BOC, RBA, BOJ
▶︎ Hawkish comments from policymakers continue (on rates and QT)
▶︎ Yields are performing, especially the short end (central bank)
▶︎ European stock markets are outperforming
▶︎ Significant flows into EUR
▶︎ CESI still going higher
▶︎ There hasn't been any nuclear rhetoric from Russia for a while, and it feels as if a positive catalyst from the conflict is a bit more possible than it was in the past
     >>BEAR<<
▶︎ European PMIs have weakened further
▶︎ Bloomberg sources saying 50 bps is the likely step in December
▶︎ COT positioning is bearish
     >>SUMMARY<<
Similar to last week: the EUR has several points going for it besides a weaker USD (and its strength even during the dollar bull run has been noteworthy): the ECB looks credibly hawkish, the energy situation has calmed for now, the Russia/Ukraine war isn't delivering any fresh catalysts to the downside, stock markets are up, yields are performing.

***** GBP *****
     >>BULL<<
▶︎ Drop in Inflation Surprise Index (CSII) but inflation surprised to the upside again this week... the market liked it
▶︎ Flows into sterling
▶︎ CESI picking up, data surprising to the upside
▶︎ Gilt sales have started without much fanfare

>>SUMMARY<<
I see the upside surprises in econ data, I see the positive reaction on the government's budget, I see that it's stronger than I anticipated... but with the outlook being as bad as it is, I can't bring myself to put in anything else but bias to the short side.

***** AUD *****
     >>BULL<<
▶︎ One of the few PMI outperformers
▶︎ Relative outperformer in the OECD CLI
     >>BEAR<<
▶︎ Regardless whether the Chinese re-opening comes true or not: AUD performance has been disappointing on these news
▶︎ Probably the most dovish central bank beside the BOJ now
▶︎ PMIs in Asia deteriorating further, China is a drag on AUD
▶︎ Seasonality is bearish
▶︎ Has seen outflows over the last weeks
     >>SUMMARY<<
It hasn't reacted to the Chinese reopening news much, commodities aren't performing, the RBA is dovish... switching back to neutral, trading it from the long and short side depending on risk on/risk off.

***** NZD *****
     >>BULL<<
▶︎ Inherent strength
▶︎ Incoming data has improved
▶︎ The highest Services PMI among the G8
▶︎ Inflation surprising to the upside again (CSII... but PPI disappointed this week)

>>BEAR<<
▶︎ Bullish sentiment
▶︎ Divergence between increasing Aussie trade balance and stagnant/falling Kiwi trade balance
     >>SUMMARY<<
The outperformance vs. AUD continues, it seems to benefit from the Chinese headlines way more than AUD. Add the comparatively hawkish RBNZ and it's a long bias.

***** CAD *****
     >>BULL<<
▶︎ CESI has picked up from lows
▶︎ Small improvement in PMIs
▶︎ COT positioning is near a bullish extreme
▶︎ Housing market remains strong
▶︎ Bearish sentiment
     >>BEAR<<
▶︎ Flows out of CAD
▶︎ CSII lower
▶︎ Yields have softened, inverted 2s10s
     >>SUMMARY<<
It continues to underperform despite more-hawkish-than-dovish rhetoric from the BOC, and with crude selling off I don't see a lot of upside. But again: I feel that I don't understand it very well at the moment.

***** CHF *****
     >>BULL<<
▶︎ 2s are up while they are down for everyone else
▶︎ PMI still holding up (one of the few that's still green on the map)
▶︎ PAIN shows shorts haven't been covered yet
▶︎ Extremely bearish sentiment, especially USDCHF and EURCHF
▶︎ Hawkish comments again this week
     >>BEAR<<
▶︎ CSII has tanked
▶︎ CESI has taken quite a nosedive and no sign of picking up
▶︎ Inflation not surprising to the upside anymore
▶︎ Yields are underperforming
     >>SUMMARY<<
Two weeks ago: I'm still a bit surprised by how weak it is. One week ago: hawkish commentary and a short-squeeze. This week: downside despite hawkish SNB commentary. Looking at it honestly, I have to admit I don't understand it from a fundamental side at the moment, so I can only trade it on higher timeframes and as a risk-on/risk-off proxy on short timeframes.

***** JPY *****
     >>BULL<<
▶︎ Inflation surprises have picked up, the tone of the talk from policymakers has also shifted subtly (see the Summary of Opinions last week, Kuroda this week)
▶︎ Treasury yields have tanked
▶︎ Relative outperformer in the OECD CLI
▶︎ Positioning is still very bullish (I don't really know why I hadn't included that over the last weeks, just look at COT)
▶︎ One possible contender for the Kuroda succession (Nakaso) is at least a bit hawkish... nothing relevant for now but keeping it in mind
     >>BEAR<<
▶︎ The divergence between the BOJ and every other central bank isn't getting any smaller
     >>SUMMARY<<
While the perceived Fed pivot will still lead to widening yield differentials, the rate of change will slow down, and apparently this (paired with lower treasury yields) was enough to trigger a short-squeeze in the USDJPY. Add the interventions and the (subtle) shift in BOJ comments and their Summary of Opinions, and it's not a short anymore."

更改后文本

Open file

"10.12.22
***** MACRO *****
     >>BULL<<
▶︎ GDP growth is picking up, inflation is coming down: goldilocks again
▶︎ Asian markets performing on China reopening
▶︎ FX volatility is declining, equity volatility is low and various volatility indexes aren't showing any stress
▶︎ Breadth is still bullish
▶︎ TD Ameritrade IMX is near lows
▶︎ Seasonality is bullish for equities
▶︎ Metals have been performing
     >>BEAR<<
▶︎ Longer-term treasuries have started to perform: bad news for risk assets if this goes on
▶︎ Credit spreads are still at/near/above recent highs
▶︎ Six out of eight G8 2s10s yield curves have inverted so far
▶︎ The global economy continues to weaken but some Asian PMIs have started to improve
▶︎ CL isn't buying the China reopening story
     >>SUMMARY<<
It's been three weeks since I published my last macro assessment, and if I go through it all, things have either remained stable or they have improved: the China reopening does have some meat on the bones, markets reflect that (copper, Asian stock indexes) but euphoria is pretty much contained (crude oil, US equities). So, I'll keep a short-term bullish bias into year-end while the overall bearish macro conditions remain in place.

***** USD *****
     >>BULL<<
▶︎ GDP growth in Q4 picking up and so far shows no sign of coming down (GDPNow)
▶︎ The labour market remains strong... for now it's a soft landing
▶︎ Slowing global growth (PMIs getting worse globally, Fidelity Business Cycles)
     >>BEAR<<
▶︎ Messaging from the Fed has been dovish in relation to the easing financial conditions
▶︎ Inflation breakevens coming down, CSII is heading lower
▶︎ The China reopening is happening
▶︎ Real yields haven't moved higher for a while
▶︎ COT positioning in treasuries is bullish
▶︎ Bearish seasonality
     >>SUMMARY<<
I don't have a firm view on the dollar going into this week with FOMC on Wednesday, but: everyone seems to expect a lot of hawkishness and Powell didn't deliver that last week when he clearly could have. Once again: we've entered the Fed blackout on dovish footing and it feels like Wednesday will see more dollar weakness. Short-term, the China reopening story will also weigh on the dollar, and depending on how that goes, I'll have to reassess my medium-term view.

***** EUR *****
     >>BULL<<
▶︎ The ECB is starting to look relatively hawkish compared to the Fed, BoE, BOC, RBA, BOJ
▶︎ Yields are performing, especially the short end (central bank)
▶︎ European stock markets are outperforming
▶︎ CESI still going higher, PMIs have gone from very bad to bad
▶︎ No reaction from EUR to energy, weather or Russia in a while
     >>BEAR<<
▶︎ COT positioning is bearish
     >>SUMMARY<<
The tailwinds clearly outweigh the headwinds especially if dollar weakness goes on.

***** GBP *****
     >>BULL<<
▶︎ Inherent strength
▶︎ CESI remains fairly resilient

>>BEAR<<
▶︎ Very dovish central bank despite a few hawkish comments this week and last
▶︎ Depressing economic outlook
▶︎ Worst OECD CLI among G8
▶︎ PMIs have weakened
▶︎ Bearish seasonality
     >>SUMMARY<<
It's tough to reconcile my macro assessment (which is clearly bearish) with the reality of GBP trading well. I'm changing my bias to neutral but that's just an acknowledgement of it being stronger than expected and me not understanding it well enough.

***** AUD *****
     >>BULL<<
▶︎ The RBA wasn't hawkish, but at least it wasn't outright dovish this week
▶︎ One of the few PMI outperformers
▶︎ Relative outperformer in the OECD CLI
▶︎ CSII is up
     >>BEAR<<
▶︎ AUD performance has been horrible in light of the Chinese reopening news
▶︎ PMIs in Asia deteriorating further, China is a drag on AUD
▶︎ Seasonality is bearish

>>SUMMARY<<
AUD has performed badly on the China pivot (as has crude oil) and the RBA isn't helping, so it's tough to imagine it much higher. Will leave it at neutral.

***** NZD *****
     >>BULL<<
▶︎ Inherent strength on all timeframes
▶︎ Incoming data has improved
▶︎ PMI outperformer
▶︎ Yield curve bear flattener
▶︎ Bearish sentiment
     >>BEAR<<
▶︎ Divergence between increasing Aussie trade balance and stagnant/falling Kiwi trade balance
     >>SUMMARY<<
Unchanged from three weeks ago: The outperformance vs. AUD continues, it seems to benefit from the Chinese headlines way more than AUD. Add the comparatively hawkish RBNZ and it's a long bias.

***** CAD *****
     >>BULL<<
▶︎ CESI has picked up from lows
▶︎ Small improvement in PMIs
▶︎ COT positioning is at a bullish extreme
▶︎ Housing market remains strong
▶︎ Bearish sentiment
▶︎ 25-delta risk reversal is seeing it higher
     >>BEAR<<
▶︎ The BOC have effectively ended the hiking cycle
▶︎ It's been underperforming massively
     >>SUMMARY<<
Still no good arguments to change the outlook from bearish to neutral: the BOC are now the most dovish central bank next to the BOJ, and crude oil is the laggard in the China story (together with AUD). Positioning in CAD being bullish, and short CAD being the trade for next year somewhere every other day are the only two things going for it.

***** CHF *****
     >>BULL<<
▶︎ PMI still holding up (one of the few that's still green on the map)
▶︎ Extremely bearish sentiment, especially USDCHF and EURCHF
     >>BEAR<<
▶︎ CSII ticking lower
▶︎ CESI isn't picking up

>>SUMMARY<<
CAD hasn't worked for me in a while, maybe it's the new funding currency of choice with the second-lowest interest rates next to JPY, but I don't know. As previously, I'll only trade it as a risk-on/risk-off proxy.

***** JPY *****
     >>BULL<<
▶︎ Inflation surprises have picked up, the tone of the talk from policymakers has also shifted subtly
▶︎ Treasury yields have tanked
▶︎ Relative outperformer in the OECD CLI
▶︎ Positioning is still very bullish (I don't really know why I hadn't included that over the last weeks, just look at COT)
     >>BEAR<<
▶︎ The divergence between the BOJ and every other central bank isn't getting any smaller
     >>SUMMARY<<
With the JPY being driven by US yields, I don't have a firm view on it either going into this week. Overall, my bias is slightly long with treasuries trading the way they are but my conviction is too low to change it in the sidebar."